Here’s a trick you can do with the NBA and college basketball seasons starting up.
Imagine
“Can I get your help with something?”
I hand my friend Nate a blank deck of cards and ask him to deal through it. He starts.
“Okay, slower,” I say.
After a few cards, I ask him to go slower, and then even slower, to the point where he’s dealing just one card every seven or eight seconds.
“Okay, cool. Thanks,” I say.
I have him look through the deck to see that it’s blank on both sides, then I take it from him.
I remove four cards from my pocket. Two say SCORE on them, and two have basketballs on both sides.
“So there’s this underground gambling club I go to a couple times a month downtown. It’s not a casino, because it’s not really legal. But it’s more organized than just, like, a home game or something. There are a bunch of different tables and games going on.
“There’s poker and other typical games, but then you have all sorts of atypical things. People betting on odd versions of tic-tac-toe and Candyland and made-up games.
“Weirdly, the one thing they don’t have is sports betting. Apparently, that’s the one thing that would definitely get them shut down. You can get away with a little underground gambling, but once you start cutting into the sports-betting industry’s money, you’ve got some very powerful people who suddenly give a shit about what you’re doing.
“But it’s a bunch of guys who like to watch sports, so they came up with this sort of workaround. It’s a betting game that you play while you’re watching the game.
“The bettor places the two SCORE cards anywhere he wants in the deck. Then the dealer deals through the deck at whatever speed he wants as the game goes on. Whenever the first basket is scored, the first basketball card is dropped in. The deck is reassembled, and they do it again for the second basket of the game.
“You get paid depending on how close the basketball cards are to the SCORE cards you placed in the deck. The odds of both basketball cards landing right next to the SCORE cards are over 1,300 to one. So the payout can be pretty substantial.
“If you put down $100 and hit both, you walk out with $100,000.
“Obviously, it’s completely random. You don’t know when the teams are going to score, and you don’t know how the dealer is going to deal.
“But… what if you had someone on the inside? Someone who could make sure the teams scored at a particular time? Now you’ve eliminated one of the random elements. And what if you could learn to anticipate the dealer’s rhythm, because people tend to fall into patterns even when they’re trying not to?
“That’s what I want to test out tonight. I know when these guys are going to score, so that’s one variable down. The hard part will be trying to anticipate how you’re going to deal.”
I take the blank deck and the SCORE cards and put them somewhere in the deck without Nate seeing.
When the game starts, I have him deal through the deck.
“You don’t have to deal evenly. You can mix up the pace. But give it a couple seconds at least between cards.”
Nate begins casually dealing through the deck.
Sixteen seconds into the game, Tyrese Maxey hits a 3-pointer for Philadelphia.
“Okay, good, good,” I say.
I have Nate place the first basketball card in the deck, reassemble it, and start dealing again.
After a missed 3, a block, and two steals, Maxey hits another 3-pointer.
I grimace a little.
“Okay, they did their part. I’m not sure about your dealing, though. I wasn’t paying close enough attention.”
I have him place the other basketball card where he stopped and reassemble the deck.
The deck is spread on the table. I gently poke aside the first basketball card. Beneath it is a SCORE card.